Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UND +185 MONT -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -4.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -4.2 (+0.2) | 148.1 (+5.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -2.1 (-1.9) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -2.6 (-1.4) | 145.3 (+8.7) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.9 (-3.1) | 148.8 (+5.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2021 | UND 79 – 77 MONT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -11.3 (#324) | -2.5 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#298) | -0.65 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.46 (#306) | -0.61 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#298) | 0.464 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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