Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -425 HOF +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOF +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -5.3 (-12.3) | 137.4 (+15.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -3.3 (-10.3) | 135.2 (+17.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -3.0 (-10.0) | 136.3 (+16.7) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -3.1 (-10.1) | 136.8 (+16.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-10 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#130) | 4.9 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#150) | 0.57 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#152) | 0.76 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.558 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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