They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Petersen Events Center · December 7, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread PITT -8.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Over
Money PITT -425 / HOF +330
Model Predictions
Spread Total PITT win
Actual HOF +7 153 Lost
Massey PITT -2.5 (-9.5)
Massey Totals 136.0 (+17.0)
Bradley-Terry 69%
Weighted B-T 68%
Efficiency Plus ML PITT -5.3 (-12.3) 137.4 (+15.6) 71%
Baseline Tuned ML PITT -3.3 (-10.3) 135.2 (+17.8) 62%
Baseline ML PITT -3.0 (-10.0) 136.3 (+16.7) 65%
Baseline Plus ML PITT -3.1 (-10.1) 136.8 (+16.2) 61%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PITT HOF
Overall 13-20 24-11
Conference 5-13 12-6
Home 8-10 10-2
Away 3-8 9-8
Neutral 2-2 5-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.5 74.4
Avg Pts Against 71.8 68.2
Massey 2.7 (#130) 4.9 (#108)
Bradley-Terry 0.41 (#150) 0.57 (#139)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.44 (#152) 0.76 (#132)
RPI 0.539 (#112) 0.558 (#92)
Shooting & Four Factors PITT HOF
FG% 43.7% 44.9%
3PT% 33.3% 34.4%
REB / G 37.4 35.6
OREB / G 12.8 10.6
AST / TO 1.04 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 51.6%
TOV% 18.1% 18.2%
ORB% 36.2% 31.8%
FT Rate 22.6% 25.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.8% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 18.6%
DRB% 70.3% 68.5%
Opp FT Rate 24.5% 27.3%

Game Analysis

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