Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -155 APSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | RGV -1.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.8 (+11.2) | 144.3 (-31.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -2.5 (+10.5) | 142.3 (-29.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -2.1 (+10.9) | 142.6 (-29.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -2.3 (+10.7) | 146.6 (-33.6) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 14-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#160) | 3.4 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#258) | 0.27 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#256) | 0.28 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#266) | 0.544 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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