Betting Lines
| Spread | OKST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +105 OKST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OKST +6 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | OKST -9.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OKST -6.4 (+0.4) | 142.6 (+19.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OKST -6.5 (+0.5) | 144.3 (+17.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OKST -6.0 (-0.0) | 146.3 (+15.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OKST -6.8 (+0.8) | 142.2 (+19.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#127) | 12.8 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#172) | 3.36 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#188) | 4.78 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#179) | 0.607 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | OKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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