Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNT +360 TCU -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +10 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -9.1 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -4.8 (-5.2) | 134.8 (-14.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.5 (-5.5) | 135.3 (-15.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.5 (-5.5) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.8 (-4.2) | 138.1 (-18.1) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | 11.5 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#177) | 0.83 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#190) | 2.25 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#171) | 0.510 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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