Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -470 UNLV +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +1 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -14.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -11.7 (-12.7) | 159.5 (-10.5) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -13.7 (-14.7) | 159.4 (-10.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -15.1 (-16.1) | 162.6 (-13.6) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -15.2 (-16.2) | 163.6 (-14.6) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#79) | -2.6 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#67) | -0.96 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#110) | -0.96 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#55) | 0.455 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 38.3% |
Game Analysis
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