Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -1100 MISS +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -19.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.7 (-37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -14.6 (-9.6) | 149.9 (-28.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -17.0 (-12.0) | 152.9 (-31.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -16.9 (-11.9) | 151.9 (-30.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -17.7 (-12.7) | 151.2 (-30.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 18-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 9-1 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 20.3 (#8) | 5.6 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#69) | 0.09 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.06 (#43) | 0.57 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#44) | 0.505 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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