Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -218 ALST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -11.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -8.6 (+1.4) | 142.7 (-4.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -10.3 (-0.3) | 141.2 (-3.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -11.3 (-1.3) | 142.3 (-4.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -10.3 (-0.3) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2024 | ALST 103 – 93 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 71.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#135) | -5.0 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#123) | -0.46 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#129) | -1.04 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#136) | 0.496 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.6% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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