Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +20 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -24.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -17.7 (+2.3) | 139.9 (+32.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -17.8 (+2.2) | 139.1 (+32.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -18.8 (+1.2) | 139.0 (+33.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -20.2 (-0.2) | 139.8 (+32.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2024 | SFA 68 – 60 ULM |
| Dec 15, 2021 | ULM 82 – 69 SFA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | ULM 66 – 55 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 1-17 |
| Home | 15-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 12-4 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 85.4 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#106) | -14.8 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#110) | -2.91 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#109) | -4.10 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#109) | 0.304 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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