Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +170 SFA -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ULM -2.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -0.0 (-8.0) | 125.7 (+2.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -2.8 (-10.8) | 126.3 (+1.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -3.1 (-11.1) | 125.2 (+2.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -3.3 (-11.3) | 128.1 (-0.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SFA 96 – 76 ULM |
| Dec 15, 2021 | ULM 82 – 69 SFA |
| Dec 12, 2020 | ULM 66 – 55 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-11 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#302) | -4.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#309) | -2.00 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#306) | -3.48 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#310) | 0.446 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 29.6% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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