Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +11 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -5.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -2.3 (+8.7) | 142.6 (-21.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -3.1 (+7.9) | 141.2 (-20.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -3.2 (+7.8) | 142.1 (-21.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -4.5 (+6.5) | 140.6 (-19.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | SFA 96 – 76 ULM |
| Nov 30, 2024 | SFA 68 – 60 ULM |
| Dec 15, 2021 | ULM 82 – 69 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#246) | -4.6 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#276) | 0.15 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.21 (#281) | 0.06 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#279) | 0.510 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 32.3% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 37.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 59.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 29.7% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 45.8% |
Game Analysis
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