He is handing the money / He is serving the food / He knows about your party / He is calling you dude. "Comfort Eagle" - Cake
Fant-Ewing Coliseum · December 12, 2020
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -5.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ULM win
Actual ULM +11 121 Won
Massey ULM -5.2 (+5.8)
Massey Totals 138.1 (-17.1)
Bradley-Terry 30%
Weighted B-T 15%
Efficiency Plus ML ULM -2.3 (+8.7) 142.6 (-21.6) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML ULM -3.1 (+7.9) 141.2 (-20.2) 64%
Baseline ML ULM -3.2 (+7.8) 142.1 (-21.1) 70%
Baseline Plus ML ULM -4.5 (+6.5) 140.6 (-19.6) 74%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 7, 2025 SFA 9676 ULM
Nov 30, 2024 SFA 6860 ULM
Dec 15, 2021 ULM 8269 SFA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ULM SFA
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 1-2 1-1
Massey -5.8 (#246) -4.6 (#229)
Bradley-Terry -1.96 (#276) 0.15 (#152)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.21 (#281) 0.06 (#156)
RPI 0.344 (#279) 0.510 (#141)
Shooting & Four Factors ULM SFA
FG% 41.8% 49.5%
3PT% 30.0% 20.0%
REB / G 36.0 30.5
OREB / G 8.3 10.0
AST / TO 1.14 0.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 51.0%
TOV% 15.8% 32.3%
ORB% 21.0% 32.3%
FT Rate 22.5% 37.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.0% 59.9%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 29.7%
DRB% 65.9% 75.9%
Opp FT Rate 16.6% 45.8%

Game Analysis

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