Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +42 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -34.3 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -31.8 (+10.2) | 157.6 (-5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALA -24.6 (+17.4) | 162.9 (-10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALA -24.3 (+17.7) | 155.1 (-3.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -31.4 (+10.6) | 154.3 (-2.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 12-3 | 2-12 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 91.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.7 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#11) | -10.0 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#20) | -0.74 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.32 (#17) | -1.51 (#268) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#14) | 0.447 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 40.9 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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