Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -440 TOW +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +25 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -10.8 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -9.4 (+15.6) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -11.4 (+13.6) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -10.6 (+14.4) | 142.8 (+4.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -11.8 (+13.2) | 143.4 (+3.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#64) | 3.3 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#14) | 1.36 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#13) | 1.71 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#30) | 0.593 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 42.7% | 37.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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