Betting Lines
| Spread | LIP -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | LIP -750 AAMU +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIP +34 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LIP -11.4 (+22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIP -14.6 (+19.4) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIP -9.2 (+24.8) | 134.8 (+15.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIP -9.8 (+24.2) | 135.3 (+14.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIP -8.3 (+25.7) | 138.2 (+11.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | LIP 82 – 44 AAMU |
| Nov 18, 2023 | LIP 106 – 81 AAMU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | AAMU 63 – 59 LIP |
| Dec 31, 2021 | LIP 66 – 63 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIP | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#136) | -4.6 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#99) | 0.62 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#100) | 0.64 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#98) | 0.522 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIP | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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