Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | DEP -8000 UAPB +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DEP -18.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -16.8 (-12.8) | 152.0 (-4.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -15.7 (-11.7) | 150.4 (-2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -15.5 (-11.5) | 150.9 (-2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -16.7 (-12.7) | 151.1 (-3.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-7 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#162) | -13.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#214) | -0.39 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#195) | -1.19 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#240) | 0.519 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 62.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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