Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -2400 NIU +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +29 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -15.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -16.1 (+12.9) | 143.1 (-4.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -13.3 (+15.7) | 144.2 (-5.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -13.1 (+15.9) | 144.7 (-5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -13.2 (+15.8) | 141.2 (-2.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | BRAD 76 – 60 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#140) | -9.0 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#186) | -1.16 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#173) | -1.78 (#277) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#169) | 0.441 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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