Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU +136 BEL -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +21 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -1.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -2.6 (-23.6) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -3.1 (-24.1) | 147.1 (-2.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -2.4 (-23.4) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -3.7 (-24.7) | 149.1 (-4.1) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | BEL 82 – 79 MTSU |
| Dec 10, 2023 | BEL 75 – 65 MTSU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MTSU 85 – 75 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#98) | 8.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#93) | 1.61 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#91) | 2.46 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#33) | 0.547 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 52.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 61.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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