Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -155 MTSU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -3.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.9 (-0.9) | 156.8 (+4.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.1 (-1.1) | 156.0 (+5.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -4.4 (-1.4) | 156.2 (+4.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.7 (-0.7) | 158.3 (+2.7) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | BEL 83 – 62 MTSU |
| Dec 10, 2023 | BEL 75 – 65 MTSU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MTSU 85 – 75 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#137) | 2.7 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#108) | 1.28 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#159) | 1.60 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#139) | 0.578 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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