Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
| Money | MTSU -120 BEL +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | MTSU -0.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.3 (-11.3) | 144.9 (-4.9) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -1.0 (-11.0) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.7 (-10.7) | 141.3 (-1.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -0.7 (-10.7) | 142.8 (-2.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | BEL 83 – 62 MTSU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | BEL 82 – 79 MTSU |
| Dec 10, 2022 | MTSU 85 – 75 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#263) | -0.4 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#257) | 0.88 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#235) | 0.87 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#241) | 0.526 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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