Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -625 AUB +455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +29 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -10.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -9.2 (+19.8) | 161.8 (+3.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -12.4 (+16.6) | 159.4 (+5.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -12.7 (+16.3) | 156.9 (+8.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -12.0 (+17.0) | 156.6 (+8.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36-3 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 9-1 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 11-1 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#9) | 14.5 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.31 (#1) | 2.28 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 8.07 (#3) | 4.26 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.678 (#7) | 0.613 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 39.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.6% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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