Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -850 NAU +575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -12.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -12.6 (-11.6) | 145.2 (-8.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -12.1 (-11.1) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -11.8 (-10.8) | 142.6 (-5.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -11.1 (-10.1) | 145.6 (-8.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#128) | -5.0 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#138) | -0.93 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#125) | -1.25 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#138) | 0.445 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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