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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
59–26 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
85 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.6 | 148.0 | 53% | 68–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 140.9 | 42% | 82–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 158.1 | 86% | 78–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 136.3 | 43% | 69–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 149.6 | 76% | 78–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 131.8 | 59% | 71–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 149.2 | 44% | 76–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 140.5 | 67% | 84–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 151.9 | 79% | 70–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 156.6 | 79% | 63–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 138.6 | 70% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 135.5 | 67% | 55–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.4 | 58% | 74–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 149.2 | 67% | 94–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.4 | 132.9 | 31% | 72–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 146.9 | 77% | 74–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.9 | 157.8 | 27% | 110–108 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 141.0 | 68% | 91–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 155.4 | 53% | 67–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 156.3 | 83% | 86–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 126.9 | 50% | 74–52 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.3 | 139.6 | 42% | 61–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.1 | 140.1 | 82% | 56–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.1 | 145.5 | 13% | 82–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 162.0 | 43% | 88–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 136.3 | 53% | 68–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.6 | 140.8 | 58% | 81–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.9 | 151.1 | 85% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 140.3 | 44% | 69–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.0 | 140.5 | 89% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 136.3 | 39% | 81–38 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 150.1 | 87% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 143.2 | 38% | 96–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 135.7 | 69% | 51–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.6 | 137.8 | 89% | 76–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 148.1 | 87% | 71–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.4 | 140.1 | 26% | 62–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 139.1 | 85% | 76–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 144.7 | 76% | 64–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 139.7 | 64% | 76–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 140.9 | 87% | 69–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.3 | 148.5 | 88% | 65–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 155.3 | 88% | 85–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 148.3 | 75% | 86–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 154.9 | 58% | 92–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 160.7 | 40% | 111–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 148.4 | 18% | 62–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.1 | 131.0 | 49% | 49–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 145.8 | 70% | 77–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 139.6 | 72% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 161.5 | 50% | 78–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 137.2 | 87% | 53–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 157.2 | 45% | 67–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 151.6 | 61% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 136.8 | 86% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 139.8 | 79% | 56–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 152.7 | 72% | 85–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.1 | 135.4 | 58% | 77–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 152.4 | 68% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 142.3 | 85% | 71–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 143.7 | 51% | 75–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 136.9 | 46% | 64–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 170.2 | 28% | 102–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 143.4 | 71% | 51–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 153.7 | 78% | 97–93 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 155.6 | 39% | 84–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 142.5 | 32% | 57–86 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 149.5 | 76% | 90–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.0 | 149.2 | 75% | 70–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 142.2 | 57% | 78–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 149.6 | 66% | 73–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 153.1 | 64% | 76–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 131.5 | 58% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.2 | 140.3 | 63% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.1 | 143.1 | 29% | 88–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.7 | 150.9 | 84% | 75–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 149.3 | 67% | 63–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 147.4 | 72% | 78–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 166.5 | 47% | 94–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 144.7 | 55% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 131.8 | 61% | 77–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 127.9 | 69% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 131.4 | 43% | 73–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 145.1 | 88% | 61–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 137.1 | 67% | 86–73 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.