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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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39–17 on winners spread MAE 9.1 56 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Tulane @ Temple	+2.9	142.8	71%	60–89	✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina	-10.5	151.9	25%	93–66	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International	+0.4	150.9	50%	73–67	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty	+9.5	135.8	81%	76–71	✗
Sam Houston @ Delaware	-7.7	150.4	22%	80–83	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate	+7.7	151.8	81%	77–90	✓
American University @ Boston University	+1.5	141.0	53%	73–75	✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso	+3.1	141.4	71%	62–63	✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh	+3.9	141.1	72%	66–69	✓
Bucknell @ Navy	+14.1	137.8	87%	69–74	✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State	+13.6	147.6	87%	65–76	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+8.3	125.5	76%	63–66	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M	-1.6	143.9	46%	77–81	✗
Howard @ Norfolk State	-2.4	141.0	38%	84–76	✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+5.4	125.9	62%	57–56	✗
Michigan @ Iowa	-6.2	138.2	30%	71–68	✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State	+16.7	142.8	90%	87–91	✓
Grambling @ Alabama State	+1.6	140.5	64%	65–63	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern	+4.2	156.2	71%	70–59	✗
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State	+0.3	134.9	54%	65–60	✗
Western Kentucky @ Missouri State	-1.3	148.6	42%	74–87	✗
Coppin State @ Morgan State	+7.3	144.0	83%	66–70	✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah	-11.7	144.8	16%	92–88	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State	+9.8	143.6	86%	77–85	✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield	+4.8	143.2	74%	60–71	✓
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State	+10.6	163.5	84%	80–77	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State	+0.2	145.1	59%	83–48	✗
Kennesaw State @ UTEP	-2.7	147.0	35%	71–78	✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State	+4.5	141.0	67%	75–77	✓
Pepperdine @ Portland	+1.7	147.5	55%	68–77	✓
South Florida @ Memphis	-2.6	158.9	43%	96–89	✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M	-0.1	148.4	52%	88–85	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield	-7.7	160.5	26%	86–84	✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota	+6.7	149.0	75%	67–80	✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa	+15.7	131.3	89%	59–68	✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State	+4.2	144.5	73%	66–68	✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	-2.8	148.8	39%	76–70	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+10.9	150.6	82%	85–107	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton	-2.9	151.1	29%	71–75	✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist	+8.4	133.1	79%	48–87	✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount	+5.5	145.1	73%	66–62	✗
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i	+9.8	146.8	85%	74–93	✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas	+9.3	153.6	81%	73–86	✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point	+23.3	156.7	91%	59–81	✓
Drake @ Belmont	+9.8	150.5	86%	100–79	✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T	-0.4	150.1	47%	88–72	✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop	+9.5	166.2	83%	81–86	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb	+5.1	148.8	70%	77–53	✗
UIC @ Murray State	-0.7	149.1	51%	92–79	✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga	+8.6	141.9	79%	88–85	✗
Stetson @ Austin Peay	+10.4	147.6	85%	60–69	✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron	+22.3	154.2	91%	55–94	✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville	+0.8	138.4	57%	82–85	✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State	-0.3	140.4	50%	81–77	✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack	+7.3	147.3	79%	48–70	✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan	-2.9	139.6	41%	77–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.