Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Big East Conference · Prudential Center · March 7, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread SJU -5.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money HALL +190 / SJU -230
Model Predictions
Spread Total HALL win
Actual SJU +7 137 Lost
Massey SJU -4.7 (-2.3)
Massey Totals 136.4 (+0.6)
Bradley-Terry 34%
Weighted B-T 30%
Efficiency Plus ML SJU -4.4 (-2.6) 132.9 (+4.1) 31%
Baseline Tuned ML SJU -2.0 (-5.0) 127.6 (+9.4) 40%
Baseline ML SJU -1.9 (-5.1) 127.7 (+9.3) 45%
Baseline Plus ML SJU -1.8 (-5.2) 132.2 (+4.8) 40%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 13, 2026 SJU 7868 HALL
Jan 21, 2026 SJU 6560 HALL
Mar 1, 2025 SJU 7161 HALL
Jan 19, 2025 SJU 7951 HALL
Mar 14, 2024 SJU 9172 HALL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HALL SJU
Overall 21-12 30-7
Conference 10-10 18-2
Home 12-5 18-2
Away 6-6 9-1
Neutral 3-1 3-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.3 80.9
Avg Pts Against 65.3 69.6
Massey 10.8 (#55) 18.4 (#19)
Bradley-Terry 1.88 (#52) 3.06 (#19)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.47 (#50) 3.87 (#21)
RPI 0.565 (#63) 0.619 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors HALL SJU
FG% 43.8% 45.1%
3PT% 31.0% 33.8%
REB / G 35.7 39.0
OREB / G 12.5 13.4
AST / TO 1.17 1.55
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.0% 50.8%
TOV% 16.9% 14.7%
ORB% 35.8% 36.1%
FT Rate 25.4% 31.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.9% 47.9%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 19.5%
DRB% 67.8% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 29.8% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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