Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DUQ -205 RICH +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -3.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -3.0 (-1.0) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -3.7 (-1.7) | 145.8 (+10.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -3.1 (-1.1) | 145.0 (+11.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -3.0 (-1.0) | 145.4 (+10.6) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2025 | RICH 73 – 68 DUQ |
| Jan 17, 2024 | RICH 63 – 61 DUQ |
| Jan 7, 2023 | RICH 75 – 73 DUQ |
| Feb 2, 2022 | RICH 74 – 57 DUQ |
| Mar 4, 2021 | DUQ 67 – 62 RICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#146) | -0.22 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#140) | 0.10 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#152) | 0.480 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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