Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -455 STAN +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -8.7 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -7.6 (-8.6) | 153.7 (+15.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.0 (-7.0) | 152.7 (+16.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -7.4 (-8.4) | 154.4 (+14.6) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.4 (-8.4) | 154.8 (+14.2) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 9, 2025 | STAN 74 – 73 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 15.4 (#30) | 9.7 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#41) | 1.83 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#41) | 2.19 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#40) | 0.571 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.73 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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