Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE -245 CAL +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -3.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -3.8 (+3.2) | 149.6 (+3.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -2.5 (+4.5) | 147.8 (+5.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.5 (+4.5) | 149.4 (+3.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -2.2 (+4.8) | 150.5 (+2.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | WAKE 76 – 66 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-7 | 17-5 |
| Away | 2-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#62) | 9.4 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#76) | 2.03 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#77) | 2.29 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#91) | 0.567 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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