Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | MSST +190 UGA -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UGA +6 | 198 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -9.6 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -8.0 (+2.0) | 165.7 (+32.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -6.4 (+0.4) | 170.2 (+27.8) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -8.3 (+2.3) | 165.2 (+32.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -7.7 (+1.7) | 166.2 (+31.8) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 75 UGA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MSST 75 – 62 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UGA 58 – 50 MSST |
| Jan 13, 2022 | MSST 88 – 72 UGA |
| Dec 31, 2020 | MSST 83 – 73 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 89.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#103) | 17.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#93) | 2.45 (#33) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#82) | 3.38 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#165) | 0.579 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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