Betting Lines
| Spread | UGA -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | UGA -150 MSST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UGA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +10 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UGA -10.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UGA -6.0 (-16.0) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UGA -5.4 (-15.4) | 140.9 (+15.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UGA -8.8 (-18.8) | 147.1 (+8.9) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UGA -7.9 (-17.9) | 146.2 (+9.8) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UGA 102 – 96 MSST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MSST 76 – 75 UGA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MSST 75 – 62 UGA |
| Jan 11, 2023 | UGA 58 – 50 MSST |
| Jan 13, 2022 | MSST 88 – 72 UGA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UGA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-6 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#52) | 3.5 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#28) | 0.42 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#31) | 0.63 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#71) | 0.487 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UGA | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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