Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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59–26 on winners spread MAE 8.7 85 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
VCU @ Dayton +1.4 145.5 56% 68–62 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Brown -3.8 138.8 32% 82–61 ✓
Western Michigan @ Kent State +10.0 157.5 85% 78–86 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +0.2 132.7 51% 69–85 ✓
Buffalo @ Toledo +5.4 150.6 73% 78–99 ✓
Columbia @ Harvard +2.5 129.7 64% 71–81 ✓
Omaha @ South Dakota -1.1 148.3 44% 76–62 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +3.6 139.5 65% 84–90 ✓
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +9.6 151.1 81% 70–84 ✓
West Georgia @ Queens University +6.5 156.0 78% 63–71 ✓
UCF @ West Virginia +2.4 138.6 61% 62–77 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +1.5 133.6 60% 55–68 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +1.5 136.2 56% 74–55 ✗
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +3.8 145.3 66% 94–85 ✗
St. John's @ Seton Hall -2.0 127.6 40% 72–65 ✓
Portland @ Washington State +5.1 145.9 70% 74–68 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Ohio -8.1 155.1 23% 110–108 ✓
Presbyterian @ Radford +1.2 138.9 57% 91–85 ✗
Denver @ North Dakota -2.9 157.5 37% 67–83 ✗
UNLV @ San Diego State +10.8 153.7 83% 86–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State -0.6 126.1 49% 74–52 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State -0.8 139.8 46% 61–66 ✗
San Diego @ Seattle U +9.2 136.3 82% 56–58 ✓
Houston @ Oklahoma State -9.2 148.1 20% 82–75 ✓
Arkansas @ Missouri -2.3 163.0 40% 88–84 ✓
Davidson @ St. Bonaventure +0.6 139.0 51% 68–63 ✗
Butler @ DePaul +2.0 136.7 59% 81–71 ✗
Xavier @ Villanova +11.3 151.9 86% 78–91 ✓
Notre Dame @ Boston College -2.7 137.8 41% 69–77 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Clemson +15.2 139.0 87% 76–79 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Delaware +0.3 133.6 47% 81–38 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Virginia +11.1 148.7 85% 72–76 ✓
Campbell @ Stony Brook -1.0 141.6 43% 96–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Mercyhurst +5.3 134.4 68% 51–56 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +13.5 140.4 88% 76–83 ✓
UNC Asheville @ High Point +12.1 146.6 86% 71–75 ✓
UConn @ Marquette -9.3 140.7 18% 62–68 ✗
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +8.6 133.2 81% 76–88 ✓
South Carolina @ Ole Miss +5.6 142.7 71% 64–61 ✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +2.3 139.5 62% 76–81 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC +13.8 137.7 88% 69–84 ✓
Arizona State @ Iowa State +12.6 147.1 87% 65–86 ✓
Kansas State @ Kansas +13.4 150.0 88% 85–104 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +4.5 148.3 69% 86–82 ✗
Louisville @ Miami +1.5 151.1 58% 92–89 ✗
Cornell @ Dartmouth -1.8 159.0 42% 111–90 ✓
George Washington @ Loyola Chicago -11.6 146.8 15% 62–68 ✗
Rhode Island @ Fordham +0.0 130.3 48% 49–61 ✓
Richmond @ Duquesne +3.1 145.0 65% 77–79 ✓
Cincinnati @ TCU +4.1 135.8 66% 63–73 ✓
SMU @ Florida State -1.0 158.2 48% 78–91 ✗
Princeton @ Yale +13.4 141.0 88% 53–78 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida International -0.3 156.2 48% 67–92 ✗
Sam Houston @ Liberty +1.7 151.6 62% 72–79 ✓
Bryant @ Vermont +11.9 134.7 87% 57–77 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University +8.1 140.3 80% 56–64 ✓
Stanford @ NC State +7.6 153.7 77% 85–84 ✗
Northeastern @ Drexel +3.2 133.5 66% 77–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +4.3 152.9 66% 75–72 ✗
Presbyterian @ Winthrop +8.0 141.0 80% 71–73 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Missouri State +0.8 143.0 52% 75–63 ✗
Jacksonville State @ UTEP -0.2 134.6 48% 64–61 ✓
Georgia @ Mississippi State -8.3 165.2 22% 102–96 ✓
Drake @ UIC +4.8 142.3 71% 51–72 ✓
Wisconsin @ Purdue +8.3 155.8 80% 97–93 ✗
Florida @ Kentucky -3.8 152.4 37% 84–77 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason -6.9 143.6 25% 57–86 ✗
New Mexico @ Utah State +5.8 150.9 71% 90–94 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State +6.5 147.3 75% 70–88 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +2.1 143.6 60% 78–67 ✗
California @ Wake Forest +2.5 147.8 61% 73–80 ✓
Kennesaw State @ New Mexico State +1.9 151.3 61% 76–79 ✓
Maine @ NJIT +2.3 130.1 59% 58–60 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Syracuse +5.8 141.4 71% 71–69 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State -5.5 144.1 26% 88–78 ✓
Utah @ Baylor +10.6 151.1 84% 75–101 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas +4.3 145.9 73% 63–73 ✓
Indiana @ Ohio State +4.7 145.6 73% 78–91 ✓
Texas A&M @ LSU -0.4 161.1 50% 94–91 ✓
Furman @ Samford -0.6 142.2 53% 86–81 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac -0.1 129.9 51% 77–75 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +5.0 127.2 73% 68–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley -2.6 131.7 43% 73–69 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +14.8 144.3 88% 61–76 ✓
Southern Miss @ App State +2.5 134.0 61% 86–73 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.