What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–13 on winners spread MAE 8.6 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +9.7 160.6 84% 76–108 ✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -2.2 132.1 41% 64–57 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +4.7 139.6 71% 65–73 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay +2.3 153.0 59% 90–83 ✗
Providence @ Georgetown +2.4 156.3 59% 79–80 ✓
Fresno State @ Grand Canyon +9.3 136.4 82% 60–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +2.9 160.3 67% 90–77 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +5.4 139.3 74% 69–79 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +10.4 143.2 84% 50–74 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +9.7 173.5 82% 84–96 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +5.9 156.8 73% 88–85 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -7.3 140.7 23% 82–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +2.6 152.9 60% 77–73 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +6.2 155.8 75% 62–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +4.0 130.7 68% 58–63 ✓
UCLA @ USC -1.6 148.8 43% 89–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +2.5 131.4 64% 66–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +1.0 141.2 55% 64–63 ✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -3.3 144.1 33% 104–101 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +5.6 142.8 71% 65–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +5.0 141.2 72% 67–93 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.2 146.1 56% 96–72 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +21.1 141.8 90% 59–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +5.9 149.8 74% 45–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ BYU +1.2 158.6 55% 76–82 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +12.6 148.6 86% 67–66 ✗
Arizona @ Colorado -12.6 153.4 16% 89–79 ✓
Washington @ Oregon -1.2 137.5 45% 79–85 ✗
Seattle U @ Pacific +0.1 129.3 51% 58–61 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +12.6 146.6 87% 84–75 ✗
Penn State @ Rutgers +3.7 147.7 69% 62–74 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh +0.3 147.2 52% 69–76 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +7.3 142.9 79% 85–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +7.2 153.6 76% 76–91 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -1.9 127.5 42% 84–69 ✓
Memphis @ Tulane -1.9 144.7 45% 96–95 ✓
Charlotte @ South Florida +13.9 154.0 88% 60–83 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +9.8 138.7 82% 73–72 ✗
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +3.2 153.1 65% 98–93 ✗
Illinois @ Maryland -15.6 144.3 15% 78–72 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa +14.1 151.6 88% 76–78 ✓
UTSA @ Rice +10.7 144.8 86% 71–80 ✓
East Carolina @ UAB +11.6 143.6 87% 83–90 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth +2.2 132.0 61% 57–65 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -0.4 141.9 49% 96–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +5.1 144.6 72% 67–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +12.2 147.1 86% 80–90 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska +6.9 132.4 76% 75–84 ✓
Houston Christian @ New Orleans +4.1 138.2 71% 60–73 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +2.4 129.3 64% 81–56 ✗
Southern Miss @ Troy +3.3 142.6 63% 70–78 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +1.0 124.5 59% 57–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +6.6 144.2 79% 75–81 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +5.4 137.6 73% 78–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.