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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+2.6 | 132.7 | 62% | 47–61 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
Hofstra
|
+5.1 | 143.3 | 69% | 61–92 | ✓ |
San Francisco
@
Oregon State
|
-1.7 | 140.8 | 44% | 77–78 | ✗ |
Fairfield
@
Siena
|
+1.7 | 133.2 | 59% | 61–76 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Marshall
|
+2.9 | 161.7 | 57% | 82–78 | ✗ |
North Dakota
@
North Dakota State
|
+11.1 | 143.2 | 85% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Montana State
|
+3.1 | 140.1 | 62% | 78–74 | ✗ |
Pacific
@
Santa Clara
|
+10.4 | 143.8 | 86% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Alabama State
|
+6.2 | 138.8 | 75% | 77–65 | ✗ |
Campbell
@
Monmouth
|
+0.0 | 144.0 | 54% | 64–74 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
-0.1 | 138.2 | 52% | 61–74 | ✗ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Wright State
|
+3.3 | 147.5 | 67% | 90–103 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Troy
|
+4.7 | 151.1 | 71% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Furman
@
East Tennessee State
|
+2.5 | 138.9 | 62% | 76–61 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana
|
-2.8 | 146.5 | 39% | 89–95 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.