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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
16–7 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
23 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mississippi Valley State
@
Grambling
|
+14.6 | 130.8 | 88% | 52–77 | ✓ |
Towson
@
Hofstra
|
+5.9 | 129.7 | 72% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+6.0 | 137.2 | 77% | 68–86 | ✓ |
Oregon State
@
Gonzaga
|
+21.0 | 143.7 | 90% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Robert Morris
|
+5.1 | 143.4 | 71% | 70–64 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Eastern Washington
|
+1.2 | 153.1 | 58% | 79–84 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.5 | 144.1 | 69% | 76–71 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Arizona State
|
-2.1 | 150.7 | 43% | 79–83 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+6.7 | 141.1 | 75% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Stanford
|
+4.5 | 138.5 | 73% | 64–63 | ✗ |
Utah
@
Cincinnati
|
+10.1 | 139.9 | 85% | 66–73 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
SMU
|
+5.5 | 153.4 | 73% | 69–86 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Oregon
|
+3.0 | 135.4 | 64% | 70–60 | ✗ |
UMass Lowell
@
UMBC
|
+11.2 | 144.5 | 84% | 69–91 | ✓ |
Missouri State
@
Florida International
|
+0.9 | 146.7 | 55% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Mercyhurst
@
Long Island University
|
+6.2 | 135.1 | 74% | 70–79 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
BYU
|
+10.7 | 161.3 | 85% | 91–105 | ✓ |
NJIT
@
Vermont
|
+10.6 | 133.8 | 86% | 54–63 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Virginia Tech
|
+2.1 | 146.1 | 59% | 95–89 | ✗ |
Monmouth
@
Hofstra
|
+7.9 | 133.4 | 78% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+8.7 | 133.8 | 82% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Wright State
|
+5.5 | 149.5 | 75% | 63–66 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Northwestern
|
+7.1 | 140.4 | 78% | 66–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.