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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
17–15 on winners
spread MAE 9.9
32 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grambling
@
Jackson State
|
-4.7 | 138.4 | 30% | 65–68 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Merrimack
|
+0.8 | 129.2 | 61% | 64–54 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Portland State
|
+3.0 | 139.5 | 63% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Gonzaga
|
+10.3 | 147.5 | 83% | 68–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Jacksonville State
|
-0.9 | 138.2 | 48% | 68–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
McNeese
|
+7.8 | 136.2 | 76% | 80–84 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Colorado
|
-0.2 | 160.4 | 51% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Idaho
@
Eastern Washington
|
-0.3 | 145.1 | 52% | 81–68 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-3.1 | 142.9 | 39% | 99–80 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Iowa
|
+12.9 | 133.4 | 85% | 64–75 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
NC State
|
+9.1 | 142.2 | 82% | 88–98 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
Iowa State
|
+10.6 | 143.4 | 84% | 42–91 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Kentucky
|
+7.7 | 152.9 | 79% | 82–87 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
+3.5 | 146.6 | 67% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Richmond
|
+8.3 | 137.2 | 82% | 75–67 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+3.0 | 146.1 | 61% | 79–83 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Louisville
|
+7.3 | 160.8 | 77% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
UNLV
|
-1.1 | 149.9 | 48% | 70–73 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Auburn
|
+9.0 | 159.6 | 83% | 61–79 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
UCF
|
-1.0 | 147.0 | 47% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Providence
@
Butler
|
+0.1 | 162.2 | 50% | 91–81 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
-0.2 | 136.4 | 48% | 76–59 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Nevada
|
+18.8 | 139.5 | 90% | 45–80 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Morgan State
|
+4.9 | 135.0 | 69% | 75–70 | ✗ |
Xavier
@
Marquette
|
+2.1 | 145.6 | 61% | 89–87 | ✗ |
Missouri State
@
Liberty
|
+6.5 | 141.4 | 76% | 77–69 | ✗ |
Northwestern
@
Indiana
|
+4.7 | 137.9 | 69% | 74–61 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas
|
+8.9 | 150.6 | 79% | 76–66 | ✗ |
Boston University
@
Lehigh
|
+1.7 | 143.9 | 55% | 60–74 | ✓ |
Tulane
@
Memphis
|
+5.5 | 145.8 | 72% | 81–69 | ✗ |
California
@
Florida State
|
-0.1 | 145.2 | 52% | 89–95 | ✗ |
BYU
@
West Virginia
|
-3.9 | 139.6 | 34% | 68–48 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.