Really don't mind if you sit this one out. "Thick as a Brick" - Jethro Tull
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 7.3 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian -1.6 137.5 44% 78–84 ✗
Jackson State @ Florida A&M +5.1 141.2 71% 60–70 ✓
Fresno State @ Colorado State +5.3 138.1 73% 63–67 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +6.4 150.6 79% 69–72 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +5.0 132.5 71% 72–67 ✗
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston +4.9 150.2 72% 61–69 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul -0.9 130.4 51% 63–56 ✓
Wake Forest @ Clemson +3.6 137.8 65% 62–71 ✓
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +2.7 142.4 61% 59–63 ✓
South Carolina @ Oklahoma +7.5 146.1 78% 74–86 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +5.4 150.7 69% 88–95 ✓
San José State @ Boise State +14.7 143.0 88% 84–74 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis -1.5 142.5 43% 73–79 ✗
Idaho @ Montana -1.9 143.6 44% 77–66 ✓
Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) +11.7 159.6 85% 87–83 ✗
George Washington @ Fordham -5.3 135.8 32% 66–62 ✓
NC State @ Virginia +5.1 151.7 71% 74–81 ✓
Providence @ St. John's +12.5 159.8 88% 72–85 ✓
Iowa @ Ohio State +0.8 140.2 57% 69–72 ✓
Iowa State @ Texas Tech -0.9 142.4 44% 75–53 ✓
Kentucky @ Missouri -3.4 147.7 38% 78–72 ✓
Bowling Green @ Toledo +1.4 145.7 59% 76–77 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern -0.1 142.5 50% 85–74 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Mason +4.6 138.9 70% 63–57 ✗
Washington @ Wisconsin +6.8 151.2 75% 82–85 ✓
Louisville @ Miami -1.8 149.1 43% 73–78 ✗
Creighton @ Seton Hall +3.1 128.0 63% 61–72 ✓
UCF @ Arizona +16.2 155.4 89% 59–81 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +9.9 157.1 84% 60–80 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +5.4 145.0 68% 62–72 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron +13.3 156.3 87% 70–73 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne -0.2 134.9 53% 61–67 ✗
Nevada @ Grand Canyon +2.1 137.0 58% 84–80 ✗
South Carolina State @ Norfolk State +8.7 140.9 81% 88–82 ✗
Ohio @ Kent State +4.4 159.4 69% 75–86 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech -1.4 130.9 46% 69–80 ✗
Northwestern @ Purdue +10.2 139.8 85% 68–81 ✓
Florida State @ Duke +18.9 145.9 90% 79–80 ✓
BYU @ Houston +5.7 143.7 73% 66–73 ✓
Xavier @ UConn +15.6 147.5 87% 68–93 ✓
Ole Miss @ Georgia +9.9 156.4 85% 76–72 ✗
Tulane @ Charlotte +2.3 141.3 61% 60–74 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +9.3 128.4 83% 59–64 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.