All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–13 on winners spread MAE 7.6 36 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +2.3 152.1 60% 81–84 ✓
Southern Utah @ UT Arlington +7.3 134.7 77% 63–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky +2.4 152.4 61% 96–87 ✗
Colorado State @ San Diego State +3.9 141.9 64% 62–71 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -2.6 147.1 40% 70–80 ✗
Rutgers @ UCLA +11.4 140.9 86% 59–72 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central -0.8 132.0 44% 76–83 ✗
Clemson @ North Carolina +3.6 135.7 66% 80–79 ✗
Georgetown @ Villanova +9.1 140.0 82% 78–64 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas -0.9 134.8 46% 70–74 ✗
TCU @ Kansas +6.2 140.2 70% 73–78 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M +3.2 159.9 59% 83–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech +3.6 140.4 65% 74–80 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton -1.2 152.9 50% 70–82 ✗
San José State @ New Mexico +14.2 148.5 88% 77–93 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Louis +9.4 155.2 82% 81–88 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +14.0 153.7 86% 67–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Louisiana Tech +0.7 132.5 57% 66–69 ✓
Kentucky @ Florida +11.5 155.4 84% 63–71 ✓
Charlotte @ UAB +4.3 142.4 70% 83–78 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Alabama A&M -0.4 142.1 48% 74–55 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +7.3 139.2 77% 63–68 ✓
Wisconsin @ Illinois +8.7 159.8 80% 91–88 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Sam Houston +4.7 156.1 72% 79–73 ✗
North Texas @ Tulsa +10.8 138.4 85% 84–90 ✓
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt +0.5 147.4 54% 68–75 ✓
Massachusetts @ Toledo +4.4 153.1 68% 67–77 ✓
Duquesne @ VCU +9.9 147.7 85% 66–71 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's +9.9 131.9 83% 68–78 ✓
South Carolina State @ Howard +14.5 141.9 88% 61–78 ✓
Purdue @ Nebraska +1.2 140.6 52% 74–58 ✗
Iowa State @ Arizona +6.5 140.1 72% 80–82 ✓
Miami @ Virginia +4.2 143.2 66% 62–84 ✓
Ole Miss @ Alabama +10.7 161.0 86% 80–79 ✗
Kent State @ Akron +9.5 159.5 83% 68–75 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's +0.4 129.8 54% 58–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.