Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | KU -205 TCU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | KU -5.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -2.8 (+2.2) | 143.0 (+8.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -2.8 (+2.2) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -3.8 (+1.2) | 139.7 (+11.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -3.4 (+1.6) | 140.1 (+10.9) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | KU 104 – 100 TCU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | KU 74 – 61 TCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | KU 83 – 81 TCU |
| Feb 21, 2023 | KU 63 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | TCU 83 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#20) | 12.9 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#13) | 2.72 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#16) | 3.49 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#11) | 0.572 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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