Betting Lines
| Spread | KU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | KU -298 TCU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KU +4 | 204 | Won |
| Massey | KU -9.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+64.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KU -8.2 (-4.2) | 137.3 (+66.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KU -9.2 (-5.2) | 139.9 (+64.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KU -9.0 (-5.0) | 135.8 (+68.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KU -8.6 (-4.6) | 136.1 (+67.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | KU 78 – 73 TCU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | KU 74 – 61 TCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | KU 83 – 81 TCU |
| Feb 21, 2023 | KU 63 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | TCU 83 – 60 KU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#17) | 12.0 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#22) | 1.77 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.32 (#23) | 3.03 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.657 (#14) | 0.520 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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