Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -185 NEV +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +4 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -1.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -0.9 (-4.9) | 139.1 (+24.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -0.6 (-4.6) | 138.4 (+25.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -1.3 (-5.3) | 137.4 (+26.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -1.2 (-5.2) | 139.9 (+24.1) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | NEV 66 – 60 GCU |
| Nov 12, 2022 | NEV 59 – 46 GCU |
| Dec 12, 2020 | GCU 87 – 77 NEV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 17-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#64) | 8.1 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#76) | 1.36 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#72) | 1.68 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#100) | 0.568 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 34.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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