Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +100 NEV -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -6.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (+41.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -5.8 (+4.2) | 139.1 (+24.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -5.8 (+4.2) | 131.7 (+32.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -6.1 (+3.9) | 129.7 (+34.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -6.5 (+3.5) | 134.9 (+29.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | NEV 84 – 80 GCU |
| Jan 28, 2026 | NEV 66 – 60 GCU |
| Nov 12, 2022 | NEV 59 – 46 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 9-3 | 10-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-1 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#125) | 2.2 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#108) | 0.33 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#112) | -0.44 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#204) | 0.607 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 53.0 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 43.4% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.8% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 83.0% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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