But where the fuck is the waitress at with my drinks! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
Boise State Broncos
74 84
FINAL Neutral Conference Mountain West
San José State Spartans
Mountain West Conference · Thomas & Mack Center (Neutral) · March 12, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread BOIS -14.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money BOIS -1600 / SJSU +900
Model Predictions
Spread Total BOIS win
Actual SJSU +10 158 Lost
Massey BOIS -14.7 (-24.7)
Massey Totals 148.0 (+10.0)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 95%
Efficiency Plus ML BOIS -16.3 (-26.3) 142.4 (+15.6) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML BOIS -14.7 (-24.7) 143.0 (+15.0) 88%
Baseline ML BOIS -15.7 (-25.7) 143.2 (+14.8) 88%
Baseline Plus ML BOIS -14.5 (-24.5) 141.8 (+16.2) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 21, 2026 BOIS 8469 SJSU
Jan 28, 2026 BOIS 8958 SJSU
Feb 8, 2025 BOIS 7952 SJSU
Dec 28, 2024 BOIS 7371 SJSU
Feb 21, 2024 BOIS 8250 SJSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings BOIS SJSU
Overall 20-12 9-24
Conference 12-8 3-17
Home 12-4 6-10
Away 6-5 1-12
Neutral 1-3 2-2
Last 5 5-0 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.4 70.8
Avg Pts Against 73.2 79.2
Massey 10.5 (#57) -4.2 (#232)
Bradley-Terry 1.77 (#59) -0.94 (#250)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.04 (#63) -0.87 (#233)
RPI 0.585 (#40) 0.446 (#290)
Shooting & Four Factors BOIS SJSU
FG% 45.0% 42.6%
3PT% 34.8% 35.2%
REB / G 35.3 29.0
OREB / G 10.4 10.2
AST / TO 1.09 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.6% 49.3%
TOV% 16.9% 15.2%
ORB% 33.0% 29.6%
FT Rate 33.2% 24.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 57.4%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 17.5%
DRB% 76.4% 63.9%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 27.5%

Game Analysis

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