And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–19 on winners spread MAE 9.0 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tulane @ Temple +3.8 139.9 66% 60–89 ✓
Tulsa @ East Carolina -12.4 152.1 15% 93–66 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Florida International +0.8 151.0 52% 73–67 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +9.7 136.8 83% 76–71 ✗
Sam Houston @ Delaware -8.0 148.4 22% 80–83 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Colgate +8.7 152.7 81% 77–90 ✓
American University @ Boston University +2.0 140.8 61% 73–75 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso +3.4 139.3 68% 62–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +4.8 141.5 69% 66–69 ✓
Bucknell @ Navy +15.6 135.4 88% 69–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +12.3 144.5 86% 65–76 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +7.5 124.3 75% 63–66 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Florida A&M -0.9 141.7 44% 77–81 ✗
Howard @ Norfolk State -2.9 141.2 36% 84–76 ✓
Delaware State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +7.1 125.8 73% 57–56 ✗
Michigan @ Iowa -9.1 144.1 20% 71–68 ✓
Rutgers @ Michigan State +17.3 141.7 91% 87–91 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +1.5 140.5 57% 65–63 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Texas Southern +2.8 151.6 64% 70–59 ✗
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State +0.7 132.4 51% 65–60 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Missouri State -2.6 147.2 40% 74–87 ✗
Coppin State @ Morgan State +7.9 148.5 76% 66–70 ✓
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah -10.4 147.4 16% 92–88 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +11.1 144.7 84% 77–85 ✓
Manhattan @ Fairfield +6.1 144.0 74% 60–71 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Arkansas State +8.5 161.0 80% 80–77 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +0.0 147.6 47% 83–48 ✗
Kennesaw State @ UTEP -2.7 145.0 40% 71–78 ✗
Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State +4.4 140.5 68% 75–77 ✓
Pepperdine @ Portland +2.9 146.1 60% 68–77 ✓
South Florida @ Memphis -6.1 155.0 26% 96–89 ✓
Southern @ Alabama A&M +1.4 145.7 56% 88–85 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield -7.0 158.9 22% 86–84 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +8.0 148.4 80% 67–80 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +15.1 130.9 89% 59–68 ✓
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +3.4 140.9 64% 66–68 ✓
UC Davis @ Long Beach State -2.9 147.7 37% 76–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +9.1 146.5 82% 85–107 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Fullerton -2.7 149.2 38% 71–75 ✗
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +7.8 133.7 80% 48–87 ✓
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +4.7 142.1 72% 66–62 ✗
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +11.5 143.6 87% 74–93 ✓
Bellarmine @ Central Arkansas +8.4 151.1 81% 73–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point +21.3 151.1 90% 59–81 ✓
Drake @ Belmont +12.3 150.7 87% 100–79 ✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T +0.5 149.5 53% 88–72 ✗
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +7.2 158.4 76% 81–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Lipscomb +3.7 145.5 65% 77–53 ✗
UIC @ Murray State -1.1 148.5 50% 92–79 ✓
The Citadel @ Chattanooga +6.3 141.8 74% 88–85 ✗
Stetson @ Austin Peay +9.6 148.8 84% 60–69 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Akron +20.2 153.6 91% 55–94 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +1.1 139.1 56% 82–85 ✓
Southern Miss @ Texas State -0.6 139.4 47% 81–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +6.3 139.4 74% 48–70 ✓
Bowling Green @ Eastern Michigan -2.0 136.1 43% 77–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.