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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
20–17 on winners
spread MAE 10.6
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas
@
Arkansas
|
+7.3 | 165.7 | 76% | 85–105 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
George Washington
|
+10.1 | 154.2 | 84% | 82–91 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
Rhode Island
|
+2.2 | 139.8 | 61% | 52–64 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Davidson
|
+3.8 | 130.8 | 65% | 70–67 | ✗ |
UAB
@
Charlotte
|
+0.1 | 143.2 | 50% | 80–74 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Providence
|
+6.4 | 160.0 | 74% | 78–56 | ✗ |
Miami
@
SMU
|
+1.9 | 157.0 | 60% | 77–69 | ✗ |
California
@
Georgia Tech
|
-5.4 | 149.5 | 26% | 76–65 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+5.0 | 123.6 | 70% | 77–71 | ✗ |
Stonehill
@
Le Moyne
|
+5.6 | 135.2 | 71% | 81–71 | ✗ |
Fairleigh Dickinson
@
Mercyhurst
|
+6.4 | 134.1 | 74% | 61–70 | ✓ |
Wagner
@
Central Connecticut
|
+3.3 | 139.1 | 64% | 70–60 | ✗ |
Chicago State
@
Long Island University
|
+12.0 | 140.1 | 88% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Oakland
|
+3.4 | 158.8 | 66% | 85–84 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
Detroit Mercy
|
+3.3 | 151.7 | 66% | 63–84 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Robert Morris
|
+7.0 | 142.2 | 78% | 53–68 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Wright State
|
+12.7 | 158.6 | 88% | 61–90 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Penn State
|
-6.4 | 148.0 | 27% | 94–62 | ✓ |
Gardner-Webb
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+12.1 | 139.9 | 85% | 65–64 | ✗ |
North Florida
@
West Georgia
|
+3.6 | 153.5 | 63% | 85–93 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Saint Louis
|
+22.0 | 149.6 | 91% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Wisconsin
|
+12.8 | 150.1 | 87% | 45–78 | ✓ |
Rice
@
North Texas
|
+7.6 | 134.9 | 78% | 58–62 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
DePaul
|
-2.6 | 132.8 | 37% | 76–57 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Oral Roberts
|
+10.6 | 140.7 | 84% | 62–84 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Northwestern
|
-6.5 | 143.7 | 23% | 70–66 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Georgia Southern
|
-0.9 | 154.6 | 46% | 84–88 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Houston
|
+12.2 | 145.6 | 87% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Pittsburgh
|
+0.2 | 143.1 | 51% | 75–74 | ✗ |
Stanford
@
Notre Dame
|
+0.9 | 146.3 | 52% | 86–78 | ✗ |
Little Rock
@
Lindenwood
|
+2.6 | 140.4 | 60% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
New Mexico
|
+9.6 | 145.6 | 80% | 82–74 | ✗ |
USC
@
Washington
|
+4.8 | 145.9 | 69% | 72–91 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Southern Illinois
|
+6.3 | 135.4 | 74% | 67–63 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
North Carolina Central
|
+6.4 | 143.4 | 72% | 80–64 | ✗ |
Sacred Heart
@
Iona
|
+3.3 | 143.6 | 65% | 91–80 | ✗ |
James Madison
@
Southern Miss
|
-1.3 | 140.8 | 44% | 80–86 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.