Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Atlantic Coast Conference · McCamish Pavilion · March 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread CAL -2.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money GT +124 / CAL -148
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual CAL +11 141 Lost
Massey CAL -5.3 (-5.7)
Massey Totals 152.1 (-11.1)
Bradley-Terry 15%
Weighted B-T 12%
Efficiency Plus ML CAL -4.4 (-6.6) 152.0 (-11.0) 32%
Baseline Tuned ML CAL -5.4 (-5.6) 149.5 (-8.5) 26%
Baseline ML CAL -5.4 (-5.6) 150.1 (-9.1) 29%
Baseline Plus ML CAL -5.5 (-5.5) 150.7 (-9.7) 26%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 5, 2026 CAL 9085 GT
Feb 15, 2025 GT 9088 CAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT CAL
Overall 11-20 22-12
Conference 2-16 9-9
Home 10-9 17-5
Away 1-9 4-6
Neutral 0-2 1-1
Last 5 0-5 3-2
Streak L12 L1
Avg Pts For 73.8 77.7
Avg Pts Against 77.4 73.4
Massey 0.8 (#151) 9.1 (#64)
Bradley-Terry -0.24 (#191) 1.97 (#49)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.34 (#189) 2.23 (#60)
RPI 0.473 (#244) 0.561 (#67)
Shooting & Four Factors GT CAL
FG% 44.2% 44.6%
3PT% 35.4% 37.0%
REB / G 37.2 34.5
OREB / G 10.9 8.8
AST / TO 1.20 1.32
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 52.4%
TOV% 18.4% 15.2%
ORB% 30.4% 25.8%
FT Rate 23.0% 28.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.9% 49.2%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 16.1%
DRB% 69.0% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 24.1% 23.5%

Game Analysis

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