You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–12 on winners spread MAE 9.4 52 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
TCU @ Texas Tech +11.9 149.0 85% 73–65 ✗
Wake Forest @ Virginia +11.9 150.5 87% 70–75 ✓
Clemson @ North Carolina +6.0 139.9 73% 63–67 ✓
Georgetown @ St. John's +13.5 145.2 88% 69–72 ✓
Toledo @ Miami (OH) +11.0 157.3 85% 72–74 ✓
George Mason @ VCU +10.7 143.1 84% 65–70 ✓
Dayton @ Richmond -3.5 142.6 35% 65–60 ✓
Oklahoma State @ UCF +6.9 160.8 77% 111–104 ✗
Seton Hall @ Xavier -1.2 137.9 43% 77–68 ✓
Ohio @ Massachusetts +4.5 154.0 68% 82–94 ✓
Ball State @ Western Michigan +4.4 133.5 66% 74–71 ✗
Akron @ Central Michigan -9.6 156.3 16% 77–64 ✓
UAlbany @ Vermont +8.4 139.0 81% 56–69 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Elon -4.0 145.3 29% 76–57 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Campbell +5.7 148.5 72% 72–90 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +11.1 149.3 86% 85–94 ✓
Drexel @ Hofstra +12.1 132.2 85% 51–62 ✓
Monmouth @ Northeastern -2.9 145.7 39% 89–83 ✓
Missouri @ Oklahoma +2.7 153.2 64% 64–80 ✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M +1.7 156.4 54% 85–96 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lafayette +2.3 138.4 61% 82–77 ✗
Army @ Bucknell +2.3 143.8 59% 55–65 ✓
Mississippi State @ Florida +19.3 158.4 91% 74–108 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State +0.2 139.4 50% 63–65 ✓
Kent State @ Northern Illinois -8.2 148.2 22% 102–76 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay +5.2 144.1 72% 56–64 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +11.4 153.2 87% 80–87 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Jackson State +0.1 151.1 49% 78–81 ✓
BYU @ Cincinnati +0.3 148.4 53% 68–90 ✓
Southern @ Alabama State +1.0 149.6 53% 71–64 ✗
Kansas @ Arizona State -4.7 143.8 29% 60–70 ✗
Oregon @ Illinois +16.3 146.6 89% 54–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss -6.8 150.9 23% 89–86 ✓
Syracuse @ Louisville +13.3 160.1 88% 62–77 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +8.4 144.4 80% 68–82 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +0.4 146.4 54% 92–78 ✗
San Diego State @ Boise State +1.9 145.3 59% 77–86 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia Tech +12.2 142.1 88% 63–72 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Air Force -15.7 137.9 12% 86–60 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Alcorn State +11.1 140.4 86% 64–67 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama A&M +1.4 135.9 55% 63–77 ✓
Nevada @ Wyoming +1.5 142.6 54% 73–83 ✓
LSU @ Auburn +6.7 157.0 74% 74–88 ✓
Nebraska @ UCLA -2.4 138.0 37% 52–72 ✗
Utah State @ UNLV -8.0 158.4 21% 65–92 ✗
Jacksonville @ Bellarmine +0.5 144.8 53% 79–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.7 141.5 78% 58–69 ✓
Stetson @ Eastern Kentucky +1.8 150.3 57% 92–76 ✗
Creighton @ Butler +3.9 150.2 69% 76–59 ✗
Louisiana @ James Madison +7.1 129.7 79% 72–87 ✓
Fordham @ La Salle -0.4 126.2 46% 84–87 ✗
Minnesota @ Indiana +6.8 136.9 75% 47–77 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.