I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Robert Morris Colonials
68 – 53
FINAL Conference Barbasol Horizon League
Youngstown State Penguins
Horizon League · UPMC Events Center · March 5, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread RMU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money RMU -185 / YSU +154
Model Predictions
Spread Total RMU win
Actual RMU +15 121 Won
Massey RMU -5.5 (+9.5) — —
Massey Totals — 145.8 (-24.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 82% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 84% ✓
Baseline Plus ML RMU -7.3 (+7.7) 144.8 (-23.8) 77% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ RMU -6.7 (+8.3) 144.4 (-23.4) 77% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML RMU -7.0 (+8.0) 142.2 (-21.2) 78% ✓
Baseline ML RMU -6.3 (+8.7) 144.1 (-23.1) 80% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 RMU 72 – 66 YSU
Dec 18, 2025 RMU 80 – 77 YSU
Mar 11, 2025 RMU 89 – 78 YSU
Jan 22, 2025 RMU 72 – 70 YSU
Dec 5, 2024 YSU 72 – 58 RMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings RMU YSU
Overall 22-11 15-17
Conference 13-7 8-12
Home 14-3 10-5
Away 8-7 4-11
Neutral 0-1 1-1
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 76.8 75.1
Avg Pts Against 73.4 74.9
Massey -0.0 (#166) -2.5 (#206)
Bradley-Terry 0.23 (#146) -0.79 (#240)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.27 (#138) -0.82 (#230)
RPI 0.514 (#145) 0.453 (#273)
Shooting & Four Factors RMU YSU
FG% 47.2% 45.8%
3PT% 38.2% 34.2%
REB / G 37.0 33.2
OREB / G 12.7 10.3
AST / TO 1.44 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.0% 54.2%
TOV% 18.3% 18.9%
ORB% 37.5% 30.6%
FT Rate 19.6% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 17.6%
DRB% 71.5% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 31.0% 27.3%

Game Analysis

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