Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -130 MIA +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -2.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.2 (-10.2) | 155.8 (-9.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.9 (-9.9) | 157.0 (-11.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.7 (-10.7) | 158.6 (-12.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.7 (-9.7) | 157.9 (-11.9) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | SMU 117 – 74 MIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#31) | 15.3 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.13 (#44) | 2.68 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#42) | 3.39 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#37) | 0.578 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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