I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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62–22 on winners spread MAE 8.6 84 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Peter's @ Duquesne +10.0 134.1 82% 59–68 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston College +18.3 143.2 91% 64–95 ✓
Stonehill @ Rider +6.4 141.7 71% 56–73 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Manhattan +5.8 150.4 73% 76–71 ✗
Army @ Harvard +14.0 134.4 88% 64–70 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ High Point +21.4 156.9 91% 62–75 ✓
Oakland @ Eastern Michigan -5.6 141.8 34% 77–63 ✓
UIC @ Jacksonville State -0.2 125.4 39% 55–49 ✓
Navy @ Quinnipiac +4.2 138.4 66% 68–71 ✓
Tulane @ Mississippi State +2.8 140.6 58% 76–106 ✓
Syracuse @ Georgetown +2.4 147.1 57% 80–68 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ UConn +25.9 168.3 91% 63–101 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Kentucky +8.5 158.0 79% 66–81 ✓
Illinois @ Tennessee +6.6 142.4 70% 79–86 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Minnesota +14.0 144.0 88% 57–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Virginia Tech +15.3 139.6 87% 50–71 ✓
South Carolina @ East Carolina -5.5 139.1 24% 68–62 ✓
California @ Butler +14.7 151.5 88% 90–97 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Massachusetts +3.4 147.4 59% 77–91 ✓
Troy @ Dayton +13.0 147.2 88% 70–82 ✓
Towson @ UMBC -0.6 141.4 46% 89–73 ✓
Youngstown State @ Western Michigan -3.4 138.4 32% 72–68 ✓
American University @ VMI +2.6 141.6 57% 77–69 ✗
Alabama @ Purdue +4.6 167.5 64% 86–92 ✓
Kansas State @ LSU +2.3 148.1 61% 75–60 ✗
South Florida @ Florida State +5.5 136.1 73% 88–72 ✗
Central Michigan @ Creighton +23.8 144.6 91% 64–109 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Buffalo -6.2 140.3 27% 82–65 ✓
Georgia State @ Mercer -1.6 143.5 44% 60–64 ✗
Longwood @ Delaware State -3.0 141.6 35% 62–61 ✓
Louisville @ DePaul +3.0 145.6 62% 68–75 ✓
Colgate @ Vermont +5.7 131.6 70% 77–71 ✗
Wofford @ Coastal Carolina -3.1 153.7 34% 88–80 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Indiana State +21.5 144.4 91% 54–98 ✓
Cleveland State @ Kent State +8.6 147.1 80% 77–83 ✓
La Salle @ Lafayette -1.5 142.7 42% 67–51 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Davidson +9.0 141.6 81% 61–79 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Liberty +6.7 144.5 73% 69–64 ✗
Georgia Southern @ North Florida +9.8 150.3 83% 56–64 ✓
Portland @ North Dakota +4.1 143.5 67% 83–72 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Monmouth +3.8 151.3 64% 71–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Toledo +8.8 151.2 80% 80–84 ✓
Auburn @ Indiana -5.8 139.3 31% 104–76 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Maine +8.0 132.7 79% 56–69 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ South Carolina State +2.5 146.8 56% 80–71 ✗
Le Moyne @ Binghamton +10.3 145.1 83% 79–91 ✓
Charlotte @ Duke +11.7 138.9 83% 56–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas +22.4 149.1 91% 50–77 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Louis -3.7 149.7 34% 68–71 ✗
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech +13.4 132.6 87% 67–72 ✓
Northwestern State @ Southern Miss +10.4 146.2 82% 74–83 ✓
Wisconsin @ Arizona +14.5 149.5 86% 73–98 ✓
UAB @ Arkansas State +2.4 146.5 59% 68–87 ✓
Jackson State @ Houston +24.9 131.8 91% 55–89 ✓
Arkansas @ Oklahoma +7.9 148.3 79% 70–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Wyoming +1.1 139.7 55% 70–78 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Georgia Tech +13.1 147.0 88% 49–70 ✓
Marist @ Dartmouth -1.2 125.1 39% 63–53 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Incarnate Word +1.3 142.7 52% 76–75 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Western Carolina +9.0 148.0 80% 63–78 ✓
Marshall @ Ohio +10.6 153.0 84% 74–69 ✗
Drexel @ West Virginia +0.7 123.7 48% 60–66 ✓
Siena @ St. Bonaventure +25.0 135.4 91% 56–89 ✓
Richmond @ Florida +2.0 150.2 62% 76–87 ✓
TCU @ Clemson +1.5 147.2 59% 66–74 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Radford +9.1 140.9 81% 74–82 ✓
Omaha @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +2.1 143.5 55% 58–62 ✓
Kansas City @ Lindenwood +2.5 140.4 56% 72–67 ✗
Milwaukee @ UC Davis +8.2 142.1 77% 81–79 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 140.4 54% 77–64 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Sacramento State +1.7 136.7 53% 62–60 ✗
Utah Valley @ Oregon State +2.9 133.5 59% 71–74 ✓
Santa Clara @ New Mexico +7.9 147.2 76% 76–93 ✓
New Orleans @ San José State +12.0 146.0 87% 82–87 ✓
Missouri @ Kansas +12.9 140.7 87% 64–73 ✓
Ohio State @ Penn State -5.8 148.3 30% 80–83 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Air Force +12.4 138.1 85% 73–68 ✗
Coppin State @ George Washington +18.9 140.1 90% 45–76 ✓
Canisius @ Pittsburgh +12.2 146.5 86% 71–82 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +3.4 144.8 63% 67–57 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Colorado State +14.0 138.6 88% 64–61 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Southern +6.5 146.1 72% 44–69 ✓
Cincinnati @ Xavier +1.1 147.9 47% 79–84 ✓
Bryant @ Stony Brook -0.1 134.1 45% 75–86 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.