Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -11.0 Push |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -550 RICH +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -4.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.3 (+6.7) | 150.2 (+12.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.0 (+9.0) | 150.2 (+12.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.3 (+8.7) | 152.2 (+10.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -2.6 (+8.4) | 152.3 (+10.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-1 | 15-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#36) | 7.0 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#96) | -0.39 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#76) | -0.49 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#81) | 0.474 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | RICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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