Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | INST -4000 USI +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +44 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | INST -27.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -22.6 (+21.4) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -21.8 (+22.2) | 149.5 (+2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -21.5 (+22.5) | 144.4 (+7.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -23.3 (+20.7) | 144.0 (+8.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2025 | INST 77 – 55 USI |
| Nov 26, 2024 | USI 87 – 77 INST |
| Dec 11, 2022 | USI 88 – 85 INST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-10 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#19) | -8.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#8) | -4.29 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#18) | -6.58 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#15) | 0.361 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.1% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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